August 6, 2018

DISH Valens Credit Analysis – CDS 607bps, Base Case iCDS 136bps, Negative Case iCDS 429bps, 2023 5.000% Bond YTW of 8.241%, iYTW of 4.231%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, XO- (equivalent to Ba1) Rating from Valens, High Refinancing Need


  • Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk, with a CDS of 607bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 136bps, and a cash bond YTW of 8.241% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.231%. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating DISH’s fundamental credit risk, with its Ba3 rating two notches lower than Valens’ XO- (Ba1) rating
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that DISH’s management compensation framework should drive management to improve all three value drivers going forward. Moreover, given low change-in-control compensation, management is not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the business, limiting event risk
  • DISH is trading at a 23.9x UAFRS-based P/E, which is low relative to recent valuations. However, even at these levels, equity markets appear to be pricing in a near-best-case scenario for operational performance, likely limiting equity upside from operational improvement
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