August 2, 2018
Credit and Market Mispricings
Most Compelling Credit v Equity Market Mispricings
AVP, CYH, MNI, NAV, UIS
Most Compelling Credit Rating Dislocations
AMD, CSTM, MNI, MTOR, MTW, NAV, R, UIS, X, YRCW
Most Compelling CDS Market Mispricings
AVP, BHC, CHK, CVI, CYH, DNR, HTZ, JCP, MNI, PKD
Most Compelling Bond Market Mispricings
AKS, AER, AMD, AVP, BZH, CHK, CVI, DNR, ENDP, PKD
Highlighted Top Ideas
AL – Air Lease Corporation
DNR – Denbury Resources Inc.
WU – The Western Union Company
Other Recent Analyses
AXL – American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.
CAR – Avis Budget Group, Inc.
Quantitative Credit Outlier Report Review
CYH tops our quantitative outlier report this week.
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
IG markets are currently fairly valued. Recently HY markets have also moved to fairly valued levels, with iCDS converging towards CDS levels. However, the XO market appears mispriced. XO CDS appears to be overstating credit risk, with CDS levels not confirmed by iCDS. Overall, cost of borrowing have been rising thanks to improving economic activity and the rising risk free rate