January 4, 2017

Valens Equities Weekly Equity Idea Highlight for January 4, 2017 – Twitter, Inc.


This week the Valens Securities team highlights our most interesting equity insight from across our tools and our analysis.

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR): Contrary to market perception, TWTR has been able to stabilize profitability in the last few years and that’s forecasted to continue, and improving management confidence implies current market expectations are too pessimistic

veih-twtr-2017-01-04

TWTR is trading at a 17.1x V/E’, which initially appears expensive. However, it is actually at the low end of historical valuations, as is the company’s 2.3x V/A’. The market is pricing in very low expectations for TWTR relative to history, with expectations for ROA’ to fall from 10.7% in 2015 (and 10% to 12% levels historically) to 6%-7% cost-of-capital levels over the next several years. The market is also expecting TWTR to see Asset’ growth continue to slow, falling to 20% a year. This is not unreasonable, but is also roughly half the growth rate of the past two years.

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