Analysis

Corporate America’s REAL earning power: how this chart helps explain the stock market’s cycles and clues into the market’s moves in 2020 and beyond

January 27, 2020
The great Ben Graham, father of value investing, talked in The Intelligent Investor about the importance of Earning Power for understanding in which companies to invest.
Recent Newsletters
January 24, 2020
A mentor, one of the top hedge fund earners in the world, sees alpha in cross-capital credit and equity research… recognizing failures of GAAP
This investor taught me to open my eyes to the credit world… and its power when viewing the equity markets
January 23, 2020
This company’s risk on a new business model unlocked value across its industry, but Uniform metrics show it would need a repeat to justify upside.
This company was the test case for a brand new business model that transformed its market
January 22, 2020
This company’s recurring LBOs have terrified Moody’s. Meanwhile, active CDS credit markets and Uniform analytics show why Moody’s is wrong
This company has repeatedly been taken private and then gone public. Risk averse credit rating agencies are focusing on that risk and refuse to rate the company as
January 21, 2020
This company enabled the Flash Boys. Valuations require growth. Wall Street analysts and Uniform metrics show a much slower pace ahead.
Tailwinds for this market with continued growth in the high frequency world, and cloud storage and SaaS solutions across all sectors mean that the market thinks this
January 17, 2020
This Principles-driven fund manager is as tight-lipped about his process as the CIA – Uniform Accounting offers a window into his black-box
When the most secretive organizations in the world decide to publish their data, it often draws a lot of attention
January 16, 2020
This low-cost retailer turned singles into millions, selling more stuff more often, Uniform metrics say it may be too late for the stock now.
This company has been a prime example of how selling more stuff to more customers can lead to a sustained business transformation
January 15, 2020
Credit investors are pricing this company to be a casualty of retail armageddon, TRUE uniform earning power data says this may present an opportunity
The bond market has consistently been overly pessimistic about this company’s outlook, pricing it for its business to be wiped out
January 14, 2020
Who really had and does deliver real earning power? UPS versus FedEx… The as-reported numbers don’t show what’s really going on
For many investors, relative performance and relative valuation analysis are key to knowing which stocks look expensive and cheap
January 13, 2020
History May Not Repeat But It Rhymes: What This Eye-Opening Chart & JP Morgan Tells Us About The Next Bear Market
Here are some of the actual headlines during the bear market side of that cycle: “Financial Contagion Spreads”, “Major Brokerage Nearly Collapses”, “Interest Rates Soar”
January 10, 2020
A Failed Playwright Trained the Greatest Value Investor Ever – What’s Really in His Portfolio Now?
One of the greatest investors of all time attributes most of his investing success to learning under a failed playwright
January 9, 2020
This company’s products own their categories, driving stable profits, but TRUE valuations show the market is pricing in much more than stability
This company has created brands that have become synonymous with the categories it owns. Because of this the company has been able to produce steady and strong profitability
January 8, 2020
5 years ago, we showed Moody’s was getting this company wrong. TRUE uniform cash flows show that even after the stock’s run, there’s still opportunity
This company’s stock and bonds have both performed extremely well thanks to an improved credit position and the boom in AI. However, Moody’s is STILL incorrectly misrating the name
January 7, 2020
The stock price implies that this company sells pickaxes (instead of mining for gold): TRUE margins (half of as-reported) say they’re losing anyway.
The market’s stock price implies that this company can keep selling pickaxes instead of mining for gold. TRUE uniform UAFRS-based margin analysis shows that the firm is still losing anyway
January 6, 2020
MONDAY MACRO: Powerful Recession Chart our recession-worried clients get from us first: Aggregate UNIFORM US Corp Debt Service (Investor Essentials)
A Powerful Macroeconomic Chart for Recession Detection That You’ve Probably Never Seen Before... it’s what we show clients who are worried about a recession.
January 3, 2020
Welcome to the Investor Essentials Daily from Valens Research
Thank you so much for having been a Valens Research Institutional Daily reader. We’re excited to continue to bring you interesting, insightful, and still free essential investor insights, as we turn
January 2, 2020
This Company Is a Prime Example of Incentives Dictating Behavior
Google at the time, Alphabet (GOOGL) now, was a great success on our Conviction Long Idea list from 2013 to 2019, when it was up almost 140%. While we were recommending the company in 2013, we became exceptionally bullish
December 20, 2019
The Military Industrial Complex Fuels This Company’s Tailwinds
Dwight D. Eisenhower was not just a great general, he was a visionary. In 1919, after World War I came to a close, as a Lieutenant Colonel he was assigned as an observer to the First Transcontinental Motor Convoy. This was a road test
December 19, 2019
Shorting Is Not About Valuations, This Company Is Proof
We often get the question from clients “so if I just reverse your long screen, is that what you’d recommend as a short?”
December 18, 2019
Not Getting Bought Might Have Been The Best Thing That Ever Happened to This Company
On November 17, 2015, Canadian Pacific (TSX:CP) offered to acquire Norfolk Southern (NSC) for $37 billion. Up until 2014 the company had benefited from tailwinds from a rare
December 17, 2019
Good Incentives Dictate Good Behavior, Bad Execution Dictates a Falling Stock Price – This Company May be an Example of Both
Each year, we spend several weekends teaching classes in MBA programs across the US, and sometimes globally. One of the two main classes we teach is on Return Driven Strategy, or RDS