MTN – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may have concerns about their cost discipline, pass-holders, and Epic Rewards

May 4, 2021

  • Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN:USA) currently trades near recent highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 56.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their cost discipline, attracting new pass-holders, and the Epic Mountain Rewards program

  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to maintain cost discipline going forward, sustain ski season performance amidst the pandemic, and attract new pass-holders, particularly through their Epic 7-Day and Epic 4-Day promos. Moreover, management may be concerned about the impact of unutilized pass-holder credits, season pass discounts, and the potential of their Okemo uphill capacity investments. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to capitalize on pent-up travel demand following the rapid rollout of vaccinations, fully launch their Australian and North American operations on their usual opening dates, and engage with customers during the holidays. Finally, management may lack confidence in their ability to secure labor opportunities stemming from the closures of other travel and leisure businesses and mitigate the impact of capacity challenges on their ski school business