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SIX – Market expectations are for a positive Uniform ROA inflection, but management may have concerns about their Active Pass Base, transformation initiatives, and theme park demand

April 23, 2021

  • Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (SIX:USA) currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 3.8x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for profitability to inflect positively, but management may have concerns about Active Pass Base sales and memberships, the execution of their transformation initiatives, and the sustainability of Drive-Thru Safari demand
  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to improve Active Pass Base season sales and memberships, execute their transformation initiatives, and sustain per capita revenue and admissions growth from core park memberships. Moreover, they may be exaggerating the uniqueness of their offerings and the loyalty of their customer following, and they may have concerns about the sustainability of Drive-Thru Safari demand and attendance improvements across open parks. Furthermore, management may lack confidence in their ability to improve their core services and tailor offerings and experiences based on customer preferences