SQ – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 62bps, Negative Case iCDS 113bps, 2026 2.750% Bond YTW of 5.382%, iYTW of 3.522%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

July 26, 2022

  • Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 5.382% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 3.522% and an Intrinsic CDS of 62bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating SQ’s fundamental credit risk with its Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.

  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. Most management members are material owners of SQ equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation. Moreover, most management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual average compensation, indicating they are less likely to pursue a takeover or sale of the company.

You don’t have access to the Valens Research Premium Application.

To get access to our best content including the highly regarded Conviction Long List and Market Phase Cycle macro newsletter, please contact our Client Relations Team at 630-841-0683 or email

Please fill out the fields below so that our client relations team can contact you

Or contact our Client Relationship Team at 630-841-0683