TWTR – No CDS, Base Case iCDS 55bps, Negative Case iCDS 82bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 3.628%, iYTW of 2.098%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

• Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 3.628%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.098% and an Intrinsic CDS of 55bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is also overstating TWTR’s fundamental credit risk, with its Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
• Earnings Call Forensics ™ analysis of the firm’s Q3 2021 earnings call (10/26) highlights that management is confident there is substantial opportunity to partner with retailers with existing e-commerce solutions in place.