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October 26, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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MTCH – Match Group, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 5.000% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAG1 (7.738% YTW, 5.438% iYTW)
Buy 2028 4.625% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAN6 (7.775% YTW, 5.575% iYTW)... -
October 25, 2022
SQ – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 90bps
Negative Case iCDS 206bps, 2026 2.750% Bond YTW of 6.618%, iYTW of 5.238%
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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October 20, 2022
- Zero Earnings Growth Caps Market Upside, Setting Up A Sideways Market. Credit signals continue to point to a significant tightening of lending availability. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that leads to a credit rout. Tighter credit availability is likely to reduce investment going forward.
- U.S. management teams still are bullish about investment, but return growth is slowing. U.S. corporate investment has finally been showing signs of growth. This can help earnings surprise on the upside but returns and credit headwinds may reduce that growth going forward.
- After the recent rapid sell-off, sentiment and valuation indicators are overly negative. This reduces the risk of a further drop as we remain in a sideways market.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Bullish (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Positive (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Positive (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 16 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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October 19, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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NWSA – News Corporation
Action: Buy 2029 3.875% Bonds CUSIP: 65249BAA7 (6.779% YTW, 5.019% iYTW)... -
October 18, 2022
MTCH – Base Case CDS 238bps, Base Case iCDS 127bps
Negative Case iCDS 191bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 7.738%, iYTW of 5.438%
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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