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The Latest from
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December 15, 2022
- The Market Follows Earnings Growth, And Earnings Growth Just Turned Negative. A mix of U.S. corporate investment growth deceleration and profit pressures has turned U.S corporate earnings growth negative. For 2022, Uniform earnings growth is forecast to be -3%, and until that trend changes, the market can’t engage higher.
- Credit signals continue to point to a significant tightening of lending availability. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that leads to a credit rout. Tighter credit availability is likely to reduce investment going forward.
- After the recent rally, sentiment is neutral while valuations are now reasonable to elevated. This appears to signal we’re at the higher end of a sideways market.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Neutral (downgrade)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Neutral (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Neutral (downgrade)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 20 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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December 14, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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CC – The Chemours Company
Action: Buy 2027 5.375% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AE8 (7.749% YTW, 4.320% iYTW)
Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AF5 (7.969% YTW, 5.119% iYTW)
Buy 2029 4.625% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AH1 (7.933% YTW, 4.893% iYTW)... -
November 30, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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F – Ford Motor Company
Action: Buy 2026 4.346% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CR9 (5.790% YTW, 4.827% iYTW)
Buy 2028 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BY5 (6.405% YTW, 4.790% iYTW)...