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The Latest from
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March 6, 2023
CC – Traded CDS 389bps, Base Case iCDS 156bps,
Negative Case iCDS 248bps, 2028 5.750% Bond YTW of 8.420%,
iYTW of 5.720%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, XO (equivalent to Baa3) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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March 3, 2023
FCX – Base Case CDS 137bps, Base Case iCDS 65bps,
Negative Case iCDS 99bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 5.557%, iYTW of 4.667%,
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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March 3, 2023
Ames Department Stores serves as a great reminder to investors of the dangers of flawed fair value accounting.
Ames was a discount retailer in the US that filed for bankruptcy in 1990. It closed well over 300 of its stores and fired 26,000 employees in an effort to pay off its creditors....
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February 22, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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F – Ford Motor Company
Action: Close 2026 7.500% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BP4
Close 2028 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BY5... -
February 16, 2023
- The Fed’s Efforts To Slow Growth Are Having Their Desired Effects. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. In late 2022, data showed management teams holding off on capex, and in early 2023, management teams slowed overall borrowing as well. The Fed’s efforts have pushed management teams to be more cautious.
- While credit availability is lacking, healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets signal any recession does not need to be a deep recession. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that ongoing tightening leads to a credit rout and waves of defaults.
- After the recent pullback and market volatility, investor sentiment is no longer extended. More neutral sentiment is likely to reduce market volatility in the short-term.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (downgrade)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Neutral (upgrade)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 22 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....