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The Latest from
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April 28, 2023
HOLX – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 80bps
Negative Case iCDS 111bps, 2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.407%, iYTW of 4.407%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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April 26, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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MU – Micron Technology, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 4.185% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BP7 (5.188% YTW, 4.192% iYTW)
Buy 2028 5.375% Bonds CUSIP: 595112CA9 (5.498% YTW, 4.198% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.327% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BN2 (5.425% YTW, 4.193% iYTW)
Buy 2029 6.750% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BV4 (5.572% YTW, 4.202% iYTW)
Buy 2030 4.663% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BQ5 (5.496% YTW, 4.095% iYTW)... -
April 25, 2023
WDC – Closed CDS 203bps, Base Case iCDS 130bps
Negative Case iCDS 433bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 6.107%, iYTW of 5.101%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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April 24, 2023
MU – Base Case CDS 152bps, Base Case iCDS 50bps
Negative Case iCDS 151bps, 2027 4.185% Bond YTW of 5.188%, iYTW of 4.192%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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April 20, 2023
- Don’t Be Fooled By Charts – Constricting Credit Means We’re Not Yet In A New Bull. The Fed’s efforts to slow lending have pushed management teams to be more cautious. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. In late 2022, data showed management teams holding off on capex, and in early 2023, management teams slowed overall borrowing as well.
- While credit availability is lacking, healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets signal any recession does not need to be a deep recession. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that ongoing tightening leads to a credit rout and waves of defaults.
- After the recent rally, investor sentiment is once again elevated. More bullish sentiment is likely to increase market volatility in the short-term.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (downgrade)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (downgrade)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 24 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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April 18, 2023
QRVO – Base Case iCDS 133bps
Negative Case 199bps, 2029 4.375% Bond YTW of 5.897%, iYTW of 4.877%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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April 14, 2023
TEX – Base Case CDS 271bps, Base Case iCDS 188bps,
Negative Case iCDS 414bps, 2029 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.554%, iYTW of 5.404%,
Ba3 Rating from S&P, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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