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The Latest from
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July 31, 2023
FL – Base Case iCDS 176bps,
Negative Case iCDS 209bps, 2029 4.000% Bond YTW of 9.076%, iYTW of 5.906%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, HY1 (equivalent to Ba2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 26, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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MU – Micron Technology, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 4.185% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BP7 (5.395% YTW, 4.389% iYTW)
Buy 2028 5.375% Bonds CUSIP: 595112CA9 (5.508% YTW, 4.468% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.327% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BN2 (5.457% YTW, 4.464% iYTW)
Buy 2029 6.750% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BV4 (5.781% YTW, 4.452% iYTW)
Buy 2030 4.663% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BV4 (5.614% YTW, 4.251% iYTW)... -
July 24, 2023
BA – Base Case CDS 86bps, Base Case iCDS 14bps,
Negative Case iCDS 25bps, 2028 3.250% Bond YTW of 5.273%, iYTW of 4.141%,
Baa2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 24, 2023
MU – Base Case CDS 106bps, Base Case iCDS 46bps,
Negative Case iCDS 85bps, 2027 4.185% Bond YTW of 5.395%, iYTW of 4.389%,
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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July 20, 2023
- Credit Metrics Continue To Show Growing Signs Of Risk. Credit availability is lacking, and corporates and consumers are starting to show pressure from credit tightening. A better debt maturity schedule for borrowers than in prior cycles reduces the risk of a severe recession, but credit issues highlight the risk of a recession is growing.
- The Fed’s efforts to slow lending have pushed management teams to be more cautious. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. In late 2022, data showed management teams holding off on capex, and in early 2023, management teams slowed overall borrowing as well.
- After the recent rally, investor sentiment is once again elevated. More bullish sentiment is likely to increase market volatility in the short-term.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 24 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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July 19, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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MOH – Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Action: Buy 2028 4.375% Bonds CUSIP: 60855RAJ9 (6.496% YTW, 4.816% iYTW)...