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The Latest from
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February 15, 2024
- Banks Still Aren’t Lending And That Caps Real Growth. Corporate Credit Metrics Are Showing Signs Of Growing Stress. Credit availability is lacking, and corporations and individual consumers are starting to show pressure from credit tightening. Credit issues highlight the risk of a recession growing.
- Slowing lending continues to push management teams to be more cautious. Uniform earnings growth continues to decelerate. Profits are forecasted to decline, and multiple signals for investment show decelerating management confidence.
- After the recent strong bounce-back rally, the market is back towards neutral sentiment levels.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Negative (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Neutral (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 40% Equity / 60% Bond Split for 5-10 Year Money and 22 Month Dollar Cost Averaging....
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February 14, 2024
Featured Top Idea
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PBF – PBF Energy Corporation
Action: Buy 2028 6.000% Bonds CUSIP: 69318FAJ7 (6.755% YTW, 4.935% iYTW)
Buy 2030 7.875% Bonds CUSIP: 69318FAL2 (7.110% YTW, 4.720% iYTW)... -
February 5, 2024
HOLX – Base Case iCDS 71bps,
Negative Case iCDS 97bps, 2029 3.250% Bond YTW of 5.583%, iYTW of 4.703%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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