Resources

ABNB – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may have concerns about user retention, listing supply, and their payment transactions

April 21, 2021

  • Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 30.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about user retention rates, host listing supply, and the sustainability of payments platform transactions
  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their long-term EBITDA margin target, maintain strong user retention rates, and improve host conversion rates. Moreover, they may be exaggerating their ability to add new listing supply, the effectiveness of their recent marketing campaigns, and their digital capabilities. Furthermore, management may have concerns about scaling back their hotel investments, the sustainability of transaction volumes across their payments platform, and the different payment methods and customs of different countries. Additionally, they may be overstating the public’s interest in hosting and the potential of Airbnb Experiences. Finally, management may lack confidence in their ability to improve brand awareness in emerging markets and they may have concerns about their geographic mix shift