Resources

ADSK – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may have concerns about growth, renewal rates, and new bookings

May 7, 2021

  • Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK:USA) currently trades above historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 68.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about direct business revenue growth, product subscription renewal rates, and new bookings

  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain direct business revenue growth, maintain healthy product subscription renewal rates, and expand the Innovyze water business. Also, they may have concerns about the progress of the transition of remaining multi-user subscribers to named users, digitization demand in the media and entertainment business, and declines in new bookings. Furthermore, they may be overstating the resiliency of their subscription business model, the progress on their vertical-specific strategic priorities, and the potential of their Autodesk Build product. Finally, management may lack confidence in their ability to capitalize on the backlog of construction and infrastructure projects and acquire companies to support vertical specialization