AMKR – Base Case iCDS 122bps, Negative Case iCDS 196bps, 2027 6.625% Bond YTW of 6.771%, iYTW of 5.581%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

August 18, 2023

  • Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 6.771% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.581%, while CDS markets are accurately stating credit risk with a CDS of 150bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 122bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is overstating AMKR’s fundamental credit risk, with its Ba3 credit rating four notches lower than Valens’ IG4+ (Baa2) rating.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a positive, management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their average compensation, indicating they are unlikely to pursue a takeover or accept a sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.

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