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APP – Base Case iCDS 2bps, Negative Case iCDS 4bps, 2031 5.375% Bond YTW of 5.096%, iYTW of 4.233%, Baa1 Rating from Moody’s, IG2+ (equivalent to Aa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Nee

June 22, 2026

  • Credit markets are overstating APP’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.096% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.233% and an Intrinsic CDS of 2bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is materially overstating APP’s fundamental credit risk with its Baa1 credit rating six notches below Valens’ IG2+ (Aa1) credit rating.

  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. That said, as positives, all members of management are material owners of APP equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company, and all members of management have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual compensation. This indicates they may not be incentivized to pursue or accept a takeover or sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.

  • Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the firm’s Q1 2026 (5/6/2026) highlights that management is confident about the effectiveness of their ad creative tools and strong customer retention, and they can drive engagement and monetization through their platform.

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