BRBR – Base Case iCDS 166bps, Negative Case iCDS 229bps, 2030 7.000% Bond YTW of 5.810%, iYTW of 5.519%, B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
August 29, 2025
- Credit markets are accurately stating BRBR’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.810% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.519% and an Intrinsic CDS of 166bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is materially overstating the company’s fundamental credit risk, with its B1 credit rating five notches lower than Valens’ IG4 (Baa2) credit rating.
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights negative signal for credit holders. That said, as a positive, all members of management are material owners of BRBR equity relative to their annual compensation. This indicates they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.