CRS – CDS 156bps, iCDS 92bps,
Negative Case iCDS 133bps, 2030 7.625% Bond YTW of 5.816%, iYTW of 4.759%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreCRS – CDS 156bps, iCDS 92bps,
Negative Case iCDS 133bps, 2030 7.625% Bond YTW of 5.816%, iYTW of 4.759%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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NRG – NRG Energy Inc
Action: Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CE0 (5.849% YTW, 4.322% iYTW)
Buy 2029 3.375% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CQ3 (5.711% YTW, 4.309% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.250% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CH3 (5.856%YTW, 4.309% iYTW)
Buy 2031 3.625% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CR1 (5.886% YTW, 4.309% iYTW)...
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F – Ford Motor Company
Action: Buy 2028 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BY5 (6.267% YTW, 5.019% iYTW)
Buy 2030 9.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CX6 (6.788% YTW, 5.134% iYTW)
Buy 2031 7.450% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CA6 (6.814% YTW, 5.311% iYTW)...
Featured Top Idea
UBER – Uber Technologies, Inc.
Action: Close Trade: 2028 6.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAG5
2029 4.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAK6
2030 4.300% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAN0...
SWKS – Base Case iCDS 74bps,
Negative Case iCDS 103bps, 2031 3.000% Bond YTW of 6.455%, iYTW of 4.891%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreF – Base Case iCDS 116bps,
Negative Case iCDS 223bps, 2031 7.450% Bond YTW of 6.814%, iYTW of 5.311%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreFeatured Top Idea
HLX – Helix Energy Solutions Group
Action: | Buy 2029 9.750% Bond CUSIP: 42330PAL1 (7.967% YTW, 5.892% iYTW) |
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently....
HLX – Base Case iCDS 211bps,
Negative Case iCDS 246bps, 2029 9.750% Bond YTW of 7.967%, iYTW of 5.892%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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BA – The Boeing Company
Action: Close Trade: | 2028 3.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DB8 2028 3.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023BX2 2028 3.450% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CA1 2029 3.200% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CD5 2029 6.298% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DQ5 2030 2.950% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CN3 2030 2.950% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CN3 2031 6.388% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DK8 |
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently....
HOLX – Base Case iCDS 94bps,
Negative Case iCDS 130bps, 2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.300%, iYTW of 4.983%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreCIEN – Base Case iCDS 89bps,
Negative Case iCDS 122bps, 2030 4.000% Bond YTW of 5.820%, iYTW of 4.990%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreXYZ – Base Case iCDS 70bps,
Negative Case iCDS 98bps, 2031 3.500% Bond YTW of 5.618%, iYTW of 4.685%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG3+ (equivalent to A1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreNRG – CDS 133bps, iCDS 30bps,
Negative Case iCDS 49bps, 2028 5.750% Bond YTW of 5.849%,
iYTW of 4.322%, Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
Read MoreFeatured Top Idea
PBF – PBF Energy Corporation
Action: | Close Trade: 2028 6.000% Bonds CUSIP: 69318FAJ7 (7.161% YTW, 6.947% iYTW) |
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently....
OII – Base Case iCDS 164bps,
Negative Case iCDS 223bps, 2028 6.000% Bond YTW of 6.725%, iYTW of 5.628%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
Read MoreBRBR – Base Case iCDS 118bps,
Negative Case iCDS 196bps, 2030 7.000% Bond YTW of 5.943%, iYTW of 5.165%,
B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
Read MoreCNC – Base Case CDS 141bps, Base Case iCDS 91bps,
Negative Case iCDS 182bps, 2030 3.375% Bond YTW of 5.642%, iYTW of 4.989%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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