The Latest from Credit News

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  November 30, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for November 30, 2022

  

  Featured Top Idea
  UBER – Uber Technologies, Inc.
  Action: Buy 2026 8.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAD2 (7.434% YTW, 4.494% iYTW)
  Buy 2027 7.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAE0 (7.077% YTW, 4.477% iYTW)
  Buy 2028 6.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAG5 (7.192% YTW, 4.502% iYTW)
  Buy 2029 4.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAK6 (7.180% YTW, 4.327% iYTW)...

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  November 28, 2022

  LPI – Base Case iCDS 234bps, Negative Case iCDS 425bps, 2028 10.125% Bond YTW of 10.180%, iYTW of 6.310%, B2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  LPI – Base Case iCDS 234bps, Negative Case iCDS 425bps

  2028 10.125% Bond YTW of 10.180%, iYTW of 6.310%, B2 Rating from Moody’s

  IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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  November 28, 2022

  HOLX – Base Case iCDS 88bps, Negative Case iCDS 122bps, 2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.847%, iYTW of 4.907%, Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  HOLX – Base Case iCDS 88bps, Negative Case iCDS 122bps

  2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.847%, iYTW of 4.907%

  Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• November 20, 2022

  Valens Market Phase Cycle Monitor – November 2022 – The Most Important Yield Curve Inverted, Confirming Medium-Term Recession Risk

  • The Most Important Yield Curve Inverted, Confirming Medium-Term Recession Risk. Credit signals continue to point to a significant tightening of lending availability. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that leads to a credit rout. Tighter credit availability is likely to reduce investment going forward.
  • U.S. management teams still are bullish about investment, but return growth is slowing. U.S. corporate investment has finally been showing signs of growth. This can help earnings surprise on the upside but returns and credit headwinds may reduce that growth going forward.
  • After the recent rally, sentiment is neutral while valuation indicators remain negative. This appears to signal we’re in the middle of a sideways market.
  • Monthly inflections:
    • Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
    • Earnings Growth (30%): Bullish (no change)
    • Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Neutral (downgrade)
    • Valuations (5%): Positive (no change)
    • Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 18 Month Dollar Cost Averaging.
    ...

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  November 18, 2022

  GM – Traded CDS 183bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps, Negative Case iCDS 143bps, 2027 4.200% Bond YTW of 5.768%, iYTW of 4.871%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  GM – Traded CDS 183bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps,

  Negative Case iCDS 143bps, 2027 4.200% Bond YTW of 5.768%, iYTW of 4.871%,

  Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,

  Low Refinancing Need...

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  November 18, 2022

  UAA – Traded CDS 246bps, Base Case iCDS 150bps, Negative Case iCDS bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 7.041%, iYTW of 5.396%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  UAA – Traded CDS 246bps, Base Case iCDS 150bps,

  Negative Case iCDS bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 7.041%, iYTW of 5.396%,

  Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• 

  November 16, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for November 16, 2022

  

  WDC – Western Digital Corporation
  Action: Buy 2026 4.750% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AM7 (7.205% YTW, 5.399% iYTW)
  Buy 2029 2.850% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AQ8 (7.526% YTW, 5.526% iYTW)...

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  November 16, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for November 23, 2022

  

  Featured Top Idea
  SKT – Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc.
  Action: No Trade...

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  November 15, 2022

  BA – Base Case CDS 152bps, Base Case iCDS 17bps, Negative Case iCDS 32bps, 2026 2.250% Bond YTW of 6.061%, iYTW of 4.461%, Baa2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  BA – Base Case CDS 152bps, Base Case iCDS 17bps

  Negative Case iCDS 32bps, 2026 2.250% Bond YTW of 6.061%, iYTW of 4.461%,

  Baa2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,

  Low Refinancing Need...

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  November 15, 2022

  SKT – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 302bps, Negative Case iCDS 346bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 6.939%, iYTW of 7.749%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, HY1 (equivalent to Ba2) Rating from Valens, High Refinancing Need

  

  SKT – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 302bps,

  Negative Case iCDS 346bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 6.939%, iYTW of 7.749%,

  Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, HY1 (equivalent to Ba2) Rating from Valens,

  High Refinancing Need...

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  November 15, 2022

  HES – Base Case CDS 123bps, Base Case iCDS 51bps, Negative Case iCDS 70bps, 2027 4.300% Bond YTW of 5.577%, iYTW of 4.481%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  HES – Base Case CDS 123bps, Base Case iCDS 51bps,

  Negative Case iCDS 70bps, 2027 4.300% Bond YTW of 5.577%, iYTW of 4.481%,

  Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,

  Low Refinancing Need...

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  November 14, 2022

  AMKR – Traded CDS 212bps, Base Case iCDS 150bps, Negative Case iCDS 225bps, 2027 6.625% Bond YTW of 7.014, iYTW of 6.554%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  AMKR – Traded CDS 212bps, Base Case iCDS 150bps

  Negative Case iCDS 225bps, 2027 6.625% Bond YTW of 7.014, iYTW of 6.554%

  Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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  November 11, 2022

  FCX – Base Case CDS 175bps, Base Case iCDS 70bps, Negative Case iCDS 108bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.182%, iYTW of 5.102%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  FCX – Base Case CDS 175bps, Base Case iCDS 70bps

  Negative Case iCDS 108bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.182%, iYTW of 5.102%

  Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• 

  November 9, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for November 9, 2022

  

  Featured Top Idea
  MU – Micron Technology, Inc.
  Action: Buy 2027 4.185% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BP7 (6.265% YTW, 4.822% iYTW)...

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  November 8, 2022

  WDC – Base Case CDS 290bps, Base Case iCDS 135bps, Negative Case iCDS 400bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 7.205%, iYTW of 5.399%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  WDC – Base Case CDS 290bps, Base Case iCDS 135bps

  Negative Case iCDS 400bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 7.205%, iYTW of 5.399%

  Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• 

  October 26, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for October 26, 2022

  

  Featured Top Idea
  MTCH – Match Group, Inc.
  Action: Buy 2027 5.000% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAG1 (7.738% YTW, 5.438% iYTW)
  Buy 2028 4.625% Bonds CUSIP: 57665RAN6 (7.775% YTW, 5.575% iYTW)...

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  October 25, 2022

  SQ – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 90bps, Negative Case iCDS 206bps, 2026 2.750% Bond YTW of 6.618%, iYTW of 5.238%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  SQ – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 90bps

  Negative Case iCDS 206bps, 2026 2.750% Bond YTW of 6.618%, iYTW of 5.238%

  Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• 

  October 19, 2022

  Valens Credit Weekly Insights for October 19, 2022

  

  Featured Top Idea
  NWSA – News Corporation
  Action: Buy 2029 3.875% Bonds CUSIP: 65249BAA7 (6.779% YTW, 5.019% iYTW)...

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  October 18, 2022

  MTCH – Base Case CDS 238bps, Base Case iCDS 127bps, Negative Case iCDS 191bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 7.738%, iYTW of 5.438%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  MTCH – Base Case CDS 238bps, Base Case iCDS 127bps

  Negative Case iCDS 191bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 7.738%, iYTW of 5.438%

  Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens

  Low Refinancing Need...

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• 

  October 12, 2022

  AVGO – Base Case iCDS 47bps, Negative Case iCDS 57bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 5.834%, iYTW of 4.304%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG3- (equivalent to A3) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

  

  AVGO – Base Case iCDS 47bps
  Negative Case iCDS 57bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 5.834%
  iYTW of 4.304%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG3- (equivalent to A3) Rating from Valens
  Low Refinancing Need...

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