Featured Top Idea
WDC – Western Digital Corporatio
Action: Buy 2026 4.750% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AM7 (6.236% YTW, 5.119% iYTW)
Buy 2029 2.850% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AQ8 (6.811% YTW, 4.780% iYTW)...
The Latest from Credit News
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January 25, 2023
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January 18, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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MU – Micron Technology, Inc.
Action: Buy 2027 4.185% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BP7 (5.265% YTW, 4.156% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.327% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BN2 (5.740% YTW, 4.233% iYTW)
Buy 2029 6.750% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BV4 (6.152% YTW, 4.242% iYTW)... -
January 17, 2023
WDC – Base Case CDS 249bps, Base Case iCDS 114bps
Negative Case iCDS 361bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 6.236%, iYTW of 5.119%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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January 11, 2023
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NWSA – News Corporation
Action: Close 2029 3.875% Bonds CUSIP: 65249BAA7 (5.987% YTW, 5.247% iYTW)... -
January 6, 2023
NWSA – Base Case iCDS 150bps,
Negative Case iCDS 316bps, 2029 3.875% Bond YTW of 5.987%, iYTW of 5.247%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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January 4, 2023
TEX – Base Case CDS 265 bps, Base Case iCDS 184 bps,
Negative Case iCDS 443 bps, 2029 5.000% Bond YTW of 6.900%, iYTW of 5.580%,
B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Ratings from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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January 4, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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TEX – Terex Corporation
Action: Buy 2029 5.000% Bonds CUSIP: 880779BA0 (6.900% YTW, 5.580% iYTW)... -
December 28, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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MOH – Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Action: Buy 2028 4.375% Bonds CUSIP: 60855RAJ9 (5.940% YTW, 4.560% iYTW)... -
December 21, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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QRVO – Qorvo, Inc.
Action: Buy 2029 4.375% Bonds CUSIP: 74736KAH4 (6.359% YTW, 4.659% iYTW)... -
December 20, 2022
MOH – Base Case CDS 201bps, Base Case iCDS 84bps
Negative Case iCDS 124bps, 2028 4.375% Bond YTW of 5.940%, iYTW of 4.560%
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG3+ (equivalent to A1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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December 20, 2022
MUR – Base Case CDS 298bps, Base Case iCDS 122bps
Negative Case iCDS 170bps, 2027 5.875% Bond YTW of 6.440%, iYTW of 4.880%
Ba2 Rating from S&P, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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December 14, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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CC – The Chemours Company
Action: Buy 2027 5.375% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AE8 (7.749% YTW, 4.320% iYTW)
Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AF5 (7.969% YTW, 5.119% iYTW)
Buy 2029 4.625% Bonds, CUSIP: 163851AH1 (7.933% YTW, 4.893% iYTW)... -
November 30, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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UBER – Uber Technologies, Inc.
Action: Buy 2026 8.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAD2 (7.434% YTW, 4.494% iYTW)
Buy 2027 7.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAE0 (7.077% YTW, 4.477% iYTW)
Buy 2028 6.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAG5 (7.192% YTW, 4.502% iYTW)
Buy 2029 4.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAK6 (7.180% YTW, 4.327% iYTW)... -
November 30, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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F – Ford Motor Company
Action: Buy 2026 4.346% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CR9 (5.790% YTW, 4.827% iYTW)
Buy 2028 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BY5 (6.405% YTW, 4.790% iYTW)... -
November 28, 2022
LPI – Base Case iCDS 234bps, Negative Case iCDS 425bps
2028 10.125% Bond YTW of 10.180%, iYTW of 6.310%, B2 Rating from Moody’s
IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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November 28, 2022
HOLX – Base Case iCDS 88bps, Negative Case iCDS 122bps
2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.847%, iYTW of 4.907%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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November 20, 2022
- The Most Important Yield Curve Inverted, Confirming Medium-Term Recession Risk. Credit signals continue to point to a significant tightening of lending availability. Healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets limit the risk that leads to a credit rout. Tighter credit availability is likely to reduce investment going forward.
- U.S. management teams still are bullish about investment, but return growth is slowing. U.S. corporate investment has finally been showing signs of growth. This can help earnings surprise on the upside but returns and credit headwinds may reduce that growth going forward.
- After the recent rally, sentiment is neutral while valuation indicators remain negative. This appears to signal we’re in the middle of a sideways market.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Bullish (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Neutral (downgrade)
- Valuations (5%): Positive (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 50/50 Split for 5-10 Year Money and 18 Month Dollar Cost Averaging.
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November 18, 2022
GM – Traded CDS 183bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps,
Negative Case iCDS 143bps, 2027 4.200% Bond YTW of 5.768%, iYTW of 4.871%,
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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November 18, 2022
UAA – Traded CDS 246bps, Base Case iCDS 150bps,
Negative Case iCDS bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 7.041%, iYTW of 5.396%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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November 16, 2022
WDC – Western Digital Corporation
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Action: Buy 2026 4.750% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AM7 (7.205% YTW, 5.399% iYTW)
Buy 2029 2.850% Bonds CUSIP: 958102AQ8 (7.526% YTW, 5.526% iYTW)...