Featured Top Idea
MU – Micron Technology, Inc.
Action: Buy 2029 6.750% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BV4 (5.120% YTW, 4.253% iYTW)
Buy 2030 4.663% Bonds CUSIP: 595112BQ5 (5.182% YTW, 4.372% iYTW)
Buy 2031 5.300% Bonds CUSIP: 595112CD3 (5.286% YTW, 4.372% iYTW)...
ON – Base Case iCDS 65bps
Negative Case iCDS 92bps 2028 3.875% Bond YTW of 5.581%, iYTW of 4.600%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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Featured Top Idea
CRS – Carpenter Technology Corporation
Action: Buy 2030 7.625% Bonds CUSIP: 144285AM5 (5.816% YTW, 4.759% iYTW)...
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AR – Base Case CDS 112bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps
Negative Case iCDS 98bps, 2029 7.625% Bond YTW of 5.640%, iYTW of 4.875%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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WMS – Base Case iCDS 107bps
Negative Case iCDS 128bps, 2030 6.375% Bond YTW of 5.840%, iYTW of 5.045%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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Featured Top Idea
SWKS – Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Action: Buy 2031 3.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 83088MAL6 (6.455% YTW, 4.891% iYTW)...
Read MoreMU – Base Case CDS 82bps, Base Case iCDS 26bps
Negative Case iCDS 40bps, 2029 6.750% Bond YTW of 5.120%, iYTW of 4.253%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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Featured Top Idea
CIEN – Ciena Corporation
Action: Buy 2030 4.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 171779AL5 (5.820% YTW, 4.990% iYTW)...
CRS – CDS 156bps, iCDS 92bps,
Negative Case iCDS 133bps, 2030 7.625% Bond YTW of 5.816%, iYTW of 4.759%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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Featured Top Idea
NRG – NRG Energy Inc
Action: Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CE0 (5.849% YTW, 4.322% iYTW)
Buy 2029 3.375% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CQ3 (5.711% YTW, 4.309% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.250% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CH3 (5.856%YTW, 4.309% iYTW)
Buy 2031 3.625% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CR1 (5.886% YTW, 4.309% iYTW)...
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Featured Top Idea
F – Ford Motor Company
Action: Buy 2028 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370BY5 (6.267% YTW, 5.019% iYTW)
Buy 2030 9.625% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CX6 (6.788% YTW, 5.134% iYTW)
Buy 2031 7.450% Bonds CUSIP: 345370CA6 (6.814% YTW, 5.311% iYTW)...
Featured Top Idea
UBER – Uber Technologies, Inc.
Action: Close Trade: 2028 6.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAG5
2029 4.500% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAK6
2030 4.300% Bonds, CUSIP: 90353TAN0...
SWKS – Base Case iCDS 74bps,
Negative Case iCDS 103bps, 2031 3.000% Bond YTW of 6.455%, iYTW of 4.891%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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F – Base Case iCDS 116bps,
Negative Case iCDS 223bps, 2031 7.450% Bond YTW of 6.814%, iYTW of 5.311%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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Featured Top Idea
HLX – Helix Energy Solutions Group
| Action: | Buy 2029 9.750% Bond CUSIP: 42330PAL1 (7.967% YTW, 5.892% iYTW) |
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently....
HLX – Base Case iCDS 211bps,
Negative Case iCDS 246bps, 2029 9.750% Bond YTW of 7.967%, iYTW of 5.892%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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Featured Top Idea
BA – The Boeing Company
| Action: Close Trade: | 2028 3.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DB8 2028 3.250% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023BX2 2028 3.450% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CA1 2029 3.200% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CD5 2029 6.298% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DQ5 2030 2.950% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CN3 2030 2.950% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023CN3 2031 6.388% Bonds, CUSIP: 097023DK8 |
Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently....
HOLX – Base Case iCDS 94bps,
Negative Case iCDS 130bps, 2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.300%, iYTW of 4.983%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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CIEN – Base Case iCDS 89bps,
Negative Case iCDS 122bps, 2030 4.000% Bond YTW of 5.820%, iYTW of 4.990%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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