HLX – Base Case iCDS 258bps,
Negative Case iCDS 334bps, 2029 9.750% Bond YTW of 7.641%,
iYTW of 6.422%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
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Read MoreThe Latest from Uncategorized News
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July 18, 2025
F – Base Case iCDS 96bps, Negative Case iCDS 181bps
2031 7.450% Bond YTW of 5.791%, iYTW of 4.994%
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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November 22, 2024
OII – Base Case iCDS 140bps,
Negative Case iCDS 200bps, 2028 6.000% Bond YTW of 6.429%, iYTW of 5.684%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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November 22, 2024
SQ – Base Case CDS NA, Base Case iCDS 56bps,
Negative Case iCDS 96bps, 2031 3.500% Bond YTW of 5.320%, iYTW of 4.794%,
Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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November 15, 2024
AMCX – Base Case iCDS 637bps
Negative Case iCDS 748bps, 2029 4.250% Bond YTW of 12.443%, iYTW of 10.571
B2 Rating from Moody’s, XO (equivalent to Baa3) Rating from Valens
Moderate Refinancing Need...
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August 15, 2024
- Corporates Are Getting Better, The Consumer Is Getting Worse. The first half of 2024 was a story of AI and massive debt refinancing removing any existential crisis for companies. The second half of the year has kicked off with a mix of optimism as we may see growing access to credit for the first time in over two years thanks to Fed cuts on the horizon, and concerns the Fed will be too late and we’ll fall into a recession soon. A wave of refinancing removed the risk of a market collapse, and now the question is if the Fed’s cuts will be in time to stimulate growth or will just be arriving as we enter a recession.
- Analysts expect AI and a broader market recovery to fuel a slight recovery in growth this year, and that may be starting to show up in the data. After seeing profits shrink 9% in 2023, investors are betting corporations can resume margin expansion and growth to fuel an earnings recovery. Improving credit conditions could facilitate this. And while corporate leadership is showing stress about the macro outlook, data on hard asset investment highlights they may be starting to put money to work, which could justify expectations for future growth.
- Even after recent volatility, valuations reflect a bet on growth resuming, and investor sentiment remains overly bullish, increasing the risk of volatility.
- Monthly inflections:
- Credit (55% of macro outlook): Negative (no change)
- Earnings Growth (30%): Neutral (no change)
- Momentum/Sentiment (10%): Negative (no change)
- Valuations (5%): Negative (no change)
- Timetable Recommendation: 40% Equity/60% Bond Split for 5-10 Year Money and 18 Month Dollar Cost Averaging.
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December 6, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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CIEN – Ciena Corporation
Action: Buy 2030 4.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 171779AL5 (6.624% YTW, 5.604% iYTW)... -
June 7, 2023
Featured Top Idea
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X – United States Steel Corporation
Action: Buy 2029 6.625% Bonds, CUSIP: 08949LAB6 (6.886% YTW, 5.766% iYTW)
Buy 2029 6.875% Bonds, CUSIP: 912909AU2 (7.670% YTW, 5.453% iYTW)... -
February 2, 2023
Supply Chain Super Cycle is here, and companies are already taking the necessary steps to make sure they improve their supply chains...
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July 29, 2022
WDC – Traded CDS 300bps, Base Case iCDS 90bps
Negative Case iCDS 229bps, 2026 4.750% Bond YTW of 5.977%, iYTW of 3.909%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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April 14, 2022
Applied Materials (AMAT) currently trades below corporate but near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 13.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’)....
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March 16, 2022
Featured Top Idea
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AAL – American Airlines Group Inc.
Close Trade: 2025 3.750% Bonds CUSIP: 02376RAE2 (6.794% YTW, 3.064% iYTW)... -
February 23, 2022
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) currently trades near corporate but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’)....
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November 15, 2021
Snap Inc. (SNAP) currently trades above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with an 88.8x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’)...
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July 13, 2021
Incyte Corporation (INCY:USA) ccurrently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 8.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm...
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July 9, 2021
OTEX – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 153bps
Negative Case iCDS 214bps, 2026 5.875% Bond YTW of 1.867%
iYTW of 2.397%, Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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May 19, 2021
Featured Top Idea
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DAL – Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Trade: Buy 2024 2.900% Bonds CUSIP: 247361ZU5 (2.618% YTW, 1.328% iYTW)
Trade: Buy 2025 7.000% Bonds CUSIP: 247361ZX9 (2.716% YTW, 1.846% iYTW)
Trade: Buy 2026 7.375% Bonds CUSIP: 247361ZZ4 (3.319% YTW, 1.809% iYTWW)... -
June 25, 2020
Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS:USA) currently trades at a historical low relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 6.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm...
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