CC – Traded CDS 255bps, Base Case iCDS 157bps, Negative Case iCDS 266bps, 2028 5.750% Bond YTW of 7.737%, iYTW of 5.716%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, XO (equivalent to Baa3) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

August 14, 2023

  • Credit markets are materially overstating CC’s credit risk with a YTW of 7.737% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.716%, while CDS markets are overstating credit risk with a CDS of 255bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 157bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating the company’s fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba3 credit rating three notches lower than Valens’ XO (Baa3) credit rating.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for creditors. CC’s compensation framework incentivizes management to improve all three value drivers: sales, margins, and asset utilization, which should lead to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows to service debt obligations. In addition, most members of management are material owners of CC equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.
  • Earnings Call Forensics™ of CC’s Q2 2023 (7/28/2023) call highlights that management is confident they will be able to optimize their plant footprint and use the remaining circuit for a wider variety of ores.

You don’t have access to the Valens Research Premium Application.

To get access to our best content including the highly regarded Conviction Long List and Market Phase Cycle macro newsletter, please contact our Client Relations Team at 630-841-0683 or email

Please fill out the fields below so that our client relations team can contact you

Or contact our Client Relationship Team at 630-841-0683