Credit markets are slightly overstating CNC’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.634% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.959%, while CDS markets are accurately stating risk with a CDS of 121bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 88bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating CNC’s fundamental credit risk with its Ba1 credit rating three notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a positive, most management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may not be incentivized to pursue a takeover or accept a sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.

Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the firm’s Q1 2026 earnings call (4/28/2026) highlights management is confident they can drive cost management initiatives, improve visibility through data and analytics, and execute on operational strategies to support margin improvement over time.