COIN – Base Case CDS 166bps, Base Case iCDS 53bps, Negative Case iCDS 192bps, 2031 3.625% Bond YTW of 6.206%, iYTW of 4.618%, B1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
May 25, 2026
- Credit bond markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 6.206% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.618%, while overstating risk with a CDS of 166 bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 53bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is materially overstating the firm’s fundamental credit risk, with its speculative B1 credit rating six notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members are material owners of COIN equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation. Furthermore, most members of management have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are not incentivized to pursue a takeover or sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.