CNC – Base Case CDS 141bps, Base Case iCDS 91bps,
Negative Case iCDS 182bps, 2030 3.375% Bond YTW of 5.642%, iYTW of 4.989%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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March 12, 2025 -
March 11, 2025
AMCX – Base Case iCDS 590bps,
Negative Case iCDS 670bps, 2029 4.250% Bond YTW of 11.270%,
iYTW of 9.865%, B2 Rating from Moody’s, XO (equivalent to Baa3) Rating from Valens,
Moderate Refinancing Need...
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February 26, 2025
Featured Top Idea
NRG – NRG Energy, Inc.Action: Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CE0 (5.785% YTW, 4.531% iYTW)
Buy 2029 3.375% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CQ3 (5.825% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.250% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CH3 (6.016% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)
Buy 2031 3.625% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CR1 (6.135% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
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Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
February 26, 2025
Featured Top Idea
NRG – NRG Energy, Inc.Action: Buy 2028 5.750% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CE0 (5.785% YTW, 4.531% iYTW)
Buy 2029 3.375% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CQ3 (5.825% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)
Buy 2029 5.250% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CH3 (6.016% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)
Buy 2031 3.625% Bonds CUSIP: 629377CR1 (6.135% YTW, 4.679% iYTW)Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Read More
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
February 19, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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HLX – Helix Energy Solutions Group
Action: Buy 2029 9.750% Bond CUSIP: 42330PAL1 (7.348% YTW, 6.527% iYTW)... -
February 10, 2025
ROST – Base Case iCDS 42bps,
Negative Case iCDS 48bps, 2031 1.875% Bond YTW of 5.116%, iYTW of 4.758%,
A2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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February 5, 2025
Featured Top Idea
CIEN – Ciena CorporationAction: Buy 2030 4.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 171779AL5 (5.713% YTW, 5.221% iYTW) Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
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Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
February 5, 2025
Featured Top Idea
CIEN – Ciena CorporationAction: Buy 2030 4.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 171779AL5 (5.713% YTW, 5.221% iYTW) Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Read More
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
February 3, 2025
MU – Base Case CDS 53bps, Base Case iCDS 24bps
Negative Case iCDS 30bps, 2029 6.750% Bond YTW of 5.195%, iYTW of 4.666%
Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens
Low Refinancing Need...
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January 29, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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PARA – Paramount Global
Action: Close Trade: 2028 3.700% Bonds CUSIP: 124857AX1
Close Trade: 2029 4.200% Bonds CUSIP: 124857AZ6
Close Trade: 2031 4.950% Bonds CUSIP: 92556HAB3... -
January 22, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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BRBR – BellRing Brands, Inc.
Action: Buy 2030 7.000% Bonds, CUSIP: 07831CAA1 (5.995% YTW, 5.092% iYTW)... -
January 15, 2025
Featured Top Idea
ZIP – ZipRecruiter, Inc.Action: Close Trade 2030 5.000% Bonds CUSIP: 98980BAA1 (7.046% YTW, 7.762% iYTW)
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Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review
Since the Fed started communicating plans to aggressively raise rates in the face of inflationary pressures, the Fed has changed from a dovish benefit to cost to borrow, to a hawkish headwind. After the recent ~250bps rise in the risk-free rate from 2021 lows, aggregate corporate cost to borrow has risen to levels that are at the high end of the prior bull market. They are nowhere near levels that signal a freeze or panic but are high enough to put pressure on corporates borrowing for growth. The newly elevated cost to borrow for corporates may make refinancing decisions and growth investment decisions tougher. This is why it is important that corporations have such healthy financial statements currently.... -
January 9, 2025
NRG – CDS 122bps, iCDS 21bps,
Negative Case iCDS 32bps, 2028 5.750% Bond YTW of 5.785%, iYTW of 4.531%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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January 9, 2025
CRS – CDS 134bps, iCDS 103bps,
Negative Case iCDS 144bps, 2030 7.625% Bond YTW of 6.541%, iYTW of 5.274%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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January 9, 2025
CRS – CDS 134bps, iCDS 103bps,
Negative Case iCDS 144bps, 2030 7.625% Bond YTW of 6.541%, iYTW of 5.274%,
Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need
...
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January 8, 2025
Featured Top Idea
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AMKR – Amkor Technology, Inc.
Action: 2027 6.625% Bonds CUSIP: 031652BK5 (5.032% YTW, 4.939% iYTW)... -
December 27, 2024
Featured Top Idea
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SQ – Block, Inc.
Action: Buy 2031 3.500% Bonds CUSIP: 852234AM5 (5.320% YTW, 4.794% iYTW)... -
December 20, 2024
CIEN – Base Case iCDS 97bps,
Negative Case iCDS 132bps, 2030 4.000% Bond YTW of 5.713%, iYTW of 5.221%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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December 20, 2024
HOLX – Base Case iCDS 77bps,
Negative Case iCDS 102bps, 2028 4.625% Bond YTW of 5.533%, iYTW of 5.015%,
Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens,
Low Refinancing Need...
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