CRWD – Base Case iCDS 25bps, Negative Case iCDS 81bps, 2029 3.000% Bond YTW of 5.037%, iYTW of 4.348%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
June 13, 2025
- Credit markets are slightly overstating CRWD’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.037% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.348% and an Intrinsic CDS of 25bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is overstating CRWD’s fundamental credit risk with its Baa3 credit rating two notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. That said, as a positive, most members of management are material owners of CRWD equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.
- Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the firm’s Q1 2026 (06/03/2025) highlights that management generated an excitement market when saying Flex will encourage customers to utilize more licensed products and adopt additional modules.