CRWD – Base Case iCDS 26bps, Negative Case iCDS 48bps, 2029 3.000% Bond YTW of 4.556%, iYTW of 3.897%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
Credit markets are slightly overstating CRWD’s credit risk with a YTW of 4.556% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 3.897% and an Intrinsic CDS of 26bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is overstating CRWD’s fundamental credit risk with its Baa3 credit rating two notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. That said, as a positive, most members of management are material owners of CRWD equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.
Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the firm’s Q2 2026 (08/27/2025) highlights that management is confident the acceleration in ARR is driven by AI-driven demand for their Falcon platform.