January 25, 2019

CTRP – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, and management is concerned about macroeconomic factors, growth opportunities, and decreasing margins


  • Ctrip International, Ltd. (CTRP:USA)¬†currently trades at recent lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 15.3x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Additionally, management is concerned about the Chinese macroeconomic environment and decreasing gross margins, as well as their growth outlook
  • Specifically, management may be concerned about the value of their brands, and their ability to maintain position as one of the largest travel companies in the world. Additionally, management may be concerned about their ability to sustain packaged tour growth rates. Management may also have concerns about the Chinese economy and urbanization rates, and may be overstating growth opportunities for the Chinese travel industry. Lastly, management may be concerned about their ability to manage expenses and the impact of packaged tours on their gross margins and revenue mix
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