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DAL – No Traded CDS, Base Case iCDS 279bps, Negative Case iCDS 422bps, 2026 3.125% Bond YTW of 2.421%, iYTW of 3.471%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, HY2 (equivalent to B2) Rating from Valens, High Refinancing Need

March 9, 2021

  • Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 3.382% and CDS of 281bps relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.722% and an Intrinsic CDS of 101bps
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for creditors. Specifically, DAL’s compensation metrics should focus management on all three value drivers: asset efficiency, margins, and top-line growth, leading to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available to service obligations. Moreover, management has low change-in-control compensation, indicating they are not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the company, which combined with DAL’s size, limits event risk for creditors
  • Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm’s Q3 2020 earnings call (11/16) highlights that management generated an excitement marker when saying that business travel will come back stronger than ever. Additionally, they are confident in their ability to rapid test travelers to return to international travel