DAL – Traded CDS 265bps, Base Case iCDS 104bps, Negative Case iCDS 150bps, 2026 7.375% Bond YTW of 3.085%, iYTW of 1.815%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

September 10, 2021

  • Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 3.085% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.815%, while CDS markets are materially overstating risk with a CDS of 265bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 104bps
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for creditors. Specifically, DAL’s compensation metrics should focus management on all three value drivers: asset efficiency, margins, and top-line growth, leading to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available to service obligations. Moreover, management has low change-in-control compensation, indicating they are not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the company, which combined with DAL’s size, limits event risk for creditors. In addition, most management members are material owners of DAL equity relative to their average annual compensation, indicating they may be well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation.