F – Base Case iCDS 78bps, Negative Case iCDS 268bps, 2031 7.450% Bond YTW of 5.157%, iYTW of 4.541%, Ba1 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
January 21, 2026
- Credit markets are slightly overstating Ford’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.157% and a CDS of 141 bps relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.541% and an Intrinsic CDS of 78 bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating the firm’s fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba1 credit rating two notches below Valens’ IG4 (Baa2) credit rating.
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for credit holders. Management’s compensation framework should encourage enhancements across all three key value drivers: sales, margins, and asset utilization, which could lead to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available for obligations.