FCX – Base Case CDS 228bps, Base Case iCDS 71bps, Negative Case iCDS 127bps, 2027 5.000% Bond YTW of 5.144%, iYTW of 3.474%, 2028 4.125% Bond YTW of 5.294%, iYTW of 3.254%, 2028 4.375% Bond YTW of 5.137%, iYTW of 3.257%, Baa3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

August 15, 2022

  • Credit markets are materially overstating FCX’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.144% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 3.474% and a CDS of 228bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 71bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating FCX’s fundamental credit risk with its Baa3 credit rating two notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for debt and equity holders. FCX’s compensation framework incentivizes management to improve all three value drivers: sales, margins, and asset utilization, which should drive Uniform ROA improvement and lead to increased cash flows available for servicing obligations going forward.

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