GATX – CDS 189 bps, Base Case iCDS 172bps, Negative Case iCDS 193bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 2.033%, iYTW of 2.823%, Baa2 Rating from Moody’s, HY1 (equivalent to Ba2) Rating from Valens, High Refinancing Need

• Cash bond markets are understating credit risk, with a YTW of 2.033%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.823%. Furthermore, Moody’s is understating the firm’s fundamental credit risk, with its Baa2 credit rating three notches higher than Valens’ HY1 (Ba2) credit rating
• Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management’s compensation framework does not punish management for overleveraging the balance sheet or over-spending on assets, potentially limiting cash available for servicing debt