ICE – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, and management is confident about mortgage origination, technology advancements, and growth

February 2, 2022

  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) currently trades above corporate and recent historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 28.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’).
  • At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 69%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.
  • However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to decline to 52% in 2022, accompanied by 10% Uniform asset growth.
  • If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $114, representing approximately 10% equity downside for the firm.
  • That said, the firm’s most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about mortgage origination, technology advancements, and growth.

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