Vail Resorts (MTN) has built its business around America’s love for skiing. 

The company is one of the country’s leading ski operators, and has built its dominant position over the past few years by leveraging an advance-commitment model and buying up prime locations for its ski resorts.

While these strategies have helped Vail Resorts generate billions in revenue, its revenue growth has stalled in recent years. 

And most recently, climate-related changes have forced the company to downgrade its outlook amid a decline in visitors.

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Skiing is one of America’s most popular recreational activities. 

This national pastime gradually spawned a multi-billion dollar industry as the U.S., during ski season, sees over 50 million skier visits during peak seasons. This influx of people has proven economically beneficial to mountainous states like Colorado and Utah.

After peaking at 65 million ski visits in 2022, the U.S. ski industry has seen a material drop to 52 million in 2025. The reason for this dropoff has been attributed to deteriorating climate conditions and hotter temperatures which has led to a reduction in snow levels.

While 52 million is by no means a miniscule figure, the visitor dropoff during ski season has negative impacts for companies who built their businesses around skiing.

And one of these firms is Colorado-based Vail Resorts (MTN).

Vail Resorts is a leading ski industry operator and has spent years building a network of ski resorts in regions like the Pacific Northwest, Tahoe, Rockies, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and others. 

The ski resort operator built its dominance through the introduction of its Epic Pass offering in 2008. Holders of the Epic Pass are provided with access to the company’s multiple ski resort locations, and can choose to renew annually. Prices range from $500+ to $1000+ per pass.

The introduction of the Epic Pass helped Vail Resorts secure an annual recurring revenue stream and enabled it to pivot away from relying on one-off seasonal sales to generate profits. 

That said, this strategy also entailed an expensive strategy of buying up prime locations for its locations.  For example, the 2019 acquisition of Peak Resorts cost the company $264 million. A subsequent expansion into Europe cost the company $136 million in 2023.

Vail Resorts’ premium pricing model and vast network of prime locations are attractive on paper. However, the company’s revenue growth has stalled in recent years.

After improving its revenue from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $2.8 billion in 2023, the company has been unable to hit the $3 billion mark. 

During this period, the company has undertaken leadership changes to address stalling growth.  After leaving in 2021, former CEO Robert Katz took over as chief executive again in 2025. 

To stimulate revenue growth, the company rolled out new pricing tiers and products for a younger and price-sensitive demographic. The firm even threw a 20% discount for visitors between the ages of 13 and 30. 

Epic Pass holders consist of roughly 75% of the company’s annual visitors, so management banked on new pricing strategies as well as cost-cutting measures and investments in marketing and technology to fuel growth. 

Unfortunately, these measures haven’t been enough to stem stalling growth. 

Management recently announced another cut to the company’s outlook due to declining visits in its Rocky Mountain locations as a result of poor snowfall levels.

During its most recent quarter, Vail Resorts’ locations in the Rockies suffered from a 24% year-over-year drop in visits. Total visits plunged by roughly 16% while the Ski School and Dining segments are both down 12%. Revenue for the quarter slightly exceeded estimates, but it’s down by 6% year-over-year.

As a result, the company is forecasting a net income range of $128 million to $162 million, a downward revision from a previously announced outlook of $144 million t0 $190 million.

Investors reacted negatively to the results and outlook downgrade, with shares dropping by as much as 4% after the market closed.

The negative reaction is warranted. While Vail Resorts’ advance-commitment model looks good in theory, the business as a whole isn’t immune from severe weather changes. As long as snowfall levels continue to decline, the company will continue to see tougher times ahead.

As a result, investors should stay away from this business for now.

Best regards,

Joel Litman & Rob Spivey
Chief Investment Officer &
Director of Research
at Valens Research