Resources

K – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may be concerned about market share, at-home demand, and growth

March 29, 2021

  • Kellogg Company (K:USA) is currently trading below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 19.6x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may be concerned about sustaining market share gains, at-home consumption demand, and revenue growth
  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain improvements in cash flow generation, maintain market share gains across their product categories, and cultivate noodle category revenue growth in Africa and the Middle East. Moreover, they may have concerns about emerging market uncertainty and the sustainability of increased sales velocity. Furthermore, management may lack confidence in their ability to deliver balanced growth over time, adapt to the online food shopping trend, and fix cereal business capacity constraints. Additionally, they may have concerns about the deceleration of at-home consumption and their big brand investments, and they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain Eggo’s outperformance in its category