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MAR – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may have concerns about occupancy growth, marketing, and EBITDA

July 21, 2021

  • Marriott International, Inc. (MAR:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 42.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about US occupancy growth, overall leisure demand, and EBITDA.
  • Specifically, management may have concerns about the sustainability of overall leisure demand, particularly in their resort properties, and a decline in group room night bookings. Management may also lack confidence in their ability to maintain occupancy growth in the US, sustain performance in the branded residences business, and restore EBITDA to pre-pandemic levels. Finally, they may be concerned about inflationary pressure on wages and about the effectiveness of their localized and personalized marketing strategies.