MAR – Markets expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new highs, but management may have concerns about bookings growth, RevPAR, initiatives, and costs

February 1, 2022

  • Marriott International (MAR) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 35.6x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’).
  • At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach record highs of 316%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.
  • Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 199% in 2022, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset shrinkage.
  • If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $47, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.
  • Moreover, the firm’s most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about bookings growth, RevPAR, initiatives, and costs.

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