MOH – Base Case CDS 143bps, Base Case iCDS 76bps, Negative Case iCDS 111bps, 2028 4.375% Bond YTW of 5.895%, iYTW of 4.665%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG3+ (equivalent to A1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

January 9, 2024

  • Credit markets are overstating MOH’s credit risk with a YTW of 5.895% and a CDS of 143bps, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.665% and an Intrinsic CDS of 76bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is grossly overstating MOH’s fundamental credit risk with its highly speculative Ba3 credit rating eight notches below Valens’ IG3+ (A1) credit rating.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a positive, most management members are material owners of MOH equity relative to their average annual compensation, indicating that they are well-aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.

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