MRNA – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade, and management may be concerned about guidance, COVID vaccine, and non-COVID portfolio

January 13, 2022

  • Moderna (MRNA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 17.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E’).
  • At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 13%, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth.
  • Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to also compress to 13% in 2022, albeit with 819% Uniform asset growth.
  • These levels would imply significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, this growth is likely unsustainable going forward as it is tied to the spike in demand for the firm’s breakthrough COVID vaccine.
  • Moreover, the firm’s most recent earnings call suggests management may be concerned about guidance, the COVID vaccine, and their non-COVID portfolio.

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