MTDR – Base Case iCDS 251bps, Negative Case iCDS 339bps, 2026 5.875% Bond YTW of 6.770%, iYTW of 6.510%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

May 30, 2023

  • Credit markets are accurately stating MTDR’s credit risk with a YTW of 6.770% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 6.510% and an Intrinsic CDS of 251bps.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly favorable signals for credit holders. MTDR’s metrics should focus management on margin expansion and asset efficiency, which should lead to higher Uniform ROA and increased cash flow available to service debt obligations. Moreover, most management members are material owners of MTDR equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are well-aligned with shareholders in terms of long-term value creation.

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