Many analysts and pundits started harping on about another recession in the U.S. as soon as the previous recession ended. It was all gloom and doom for them even when parts of the economy boomed. 

At Valens Research, we’ve not been as bearish…

…until Wall Street’s canary in the coalmine just started to sing. 

Philippine Markets Newsletter: 
The Monday Macro Report
Powered by Valens Research

The Philippines is in an enviable position to have an economy that remains mostly unaffected when its major trading partners face recession concerns. In fact, any recessions the country has had were not caused by global economic issues, but rather by internal conflicts.

However, that does not mean the Philippine stock market isn’t affected by how the major stock markets in the world are doing. This is why it’s still important for Philippine investors to be aware of what goes on globally, especially in the U.S.

For a long time, we’ve been bullish about the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market.

Our Market Phase Cycle has always pointed to stable fundamentals. Any concerns about unemployment, interest rates, and inflation have been minimal for as long as credit signals tell us there’s nothing to be worried about. 

After all, if we look at previous economic recessions and depressions, we’ll see an unfortunate credit event always occurs before the collapse.

So, we’ve mostly ignored what a lot of Wall Street analysts cry out—that it’s all doom and gloom. That is, until recently.

For the first time since the Great Depression, we’re seeing an important credit signal flash red. The U.S. money supply is dramatically falling, which has only happened four times in the past 150 years. Each time, without fail, a major economic depression followed.

It happened in 1878, 1893, 1921, and 1931. U.S. money supply contracted by at least 2%, and a major economic depression quickly followed, along with double-digit unemployment.

Today, for the first time since 1931, U.S. money supply is down 2%.

This could potentially mean a massive move downwards in the stock market. While we still recommend practicing peso cost averaging, there’s another strategy that will allow you to preserve more of your capital and earn more from it.

The investment decisions you make heading into the new year don’t just have to be good. They have to be perfect.

If you want to know how to still do well in this economic downturn, we invite you to join us as Prof. Joel Litman and Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin show you the #1 step to take with your money before January 1, 2024.

This special event is free of charge, but you have to register to save your slot: http://www.PerfectStocks24.com

This will be your financial lifeline for 2024.

We hope you can join!

About the Philippine Markets Newsletter
“The Monday Macro Report”

When just about anyone can post just about anything online, it gets increasingly difficult for an individual investor to sift through the plethora of information available. 

Investors need a tool that will help them cut through any biased or misleading information and dive straight into reliable and useful data. 

Every Monday, we publish an interesting chart on the Philippine economy and stock market. We highlight data that investors would normally look at, but through the lens of Uniform Accounting, a powerful tool that gets investors closer to understanding the economic reality of firms. 

Understanding what kind of market we are in, what leading indicators we should be looking at, and what market expectations are, will make investing a less monumental task than finding a needle in a haystack.

Hope you’ve found this week’s macro chart interesting and insightful. 

Stay tuned for next week’s Monday Macro report! 

Regards,

Angelica Lim
Research Director
Philippine Markets Newsletter
Powered by Valens Research
www.valens-research.com