SYNA – Base Case iCDS 180bps, Negative Case iCDS 286bps, 2029 4.000% Bond YTW of 7.577%, iYTW of 5.697%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

June 23, 2023

  • Credit markets are materially overstating SYNA’s credit risk with a YTW of 7.577% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.697% and an Intrinsic CDS of 180bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating SYNA’s fundamental credit risk with its speculative Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. That said, as a positive, although most management members are not material owners of SYNA equity relative to their annual compensation, CEO Hurlston’s significant equity ownership indicates he may be able to convince other NEOs to align with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation.
  • Earnings Call Forensics™ of SYNA’s Q3 2023 (05/03/2023) call highlights that management generated an excitement marker when saying days of sales outstanding were reduced by five days over the last quarter.

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