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TWTR – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to improve, but management may be concerned about advertisers, their userbase, and Topics

February 1, 2021

  • Twitter, Inc. (TWTR:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 81.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about their ability to attract advertisers, maintain their userbase growth, and engage users with Topics
  • Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to maintain their userbase growth, attract advertisers with mobile app promotions (MAP), and be the platform for movie launches. In addition, they may be concerned about seasonal headwinds and the pace of their R&D implementation. Furthermore, management may be overstating the potential of the direct response (DR) road map as a way to better target the digital advertising TAM. Finally, they may have concerns about third-party measurements for their MAP and they may lack confidence in Topics’ ability to improve user engagement