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TWTR – No CDS, Base Case iCDS 44bps, Negative Case iCDS 55bps, 2027 3.875% Bond YTW of 2.887%, iYTW of 1.217%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

June 17, 2021

  • Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 2.887% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.217% and an Intrinsic CDS of 44bps. Meanwhile, Moody’s is overstating TWTR’s fundamental credit risk with its Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating
  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. Management has low change-in-control compensation relative to their average annual compensation, indicating they are not incentivized to accept a buyout or pursue a sale of the firm, reducing event risk. Moreover, most management members are material owners of TWTR equity, indicating they are well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation