UAA – Base Case CDS 262bps, Base Case iCDS 146bps, Negative Case iCDS 209bps, 2026 3.250% Bond YTW of 7.044%, iYTW of 6.297%, Ba2 Rating from Moody’s, IG4+ (equivalent to Baa1) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need
November 6, 2023
- Credit markets are overstating UAA’s credit risk with a YTW of 7.044% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 6.297% and a CDS of 262bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 146bps. Furthermore, Moody’s is overstating UAA’s fundamental credit risk with its Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens’ IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
- Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm’s Q1 2024 (08/08/2023) earnings call highlights that management is confident they are making progress with the evolution of their overall social media approach and that UA rewards will be rolled out more broadly to stores in the fall. Furthermore, management generated an excitement marker when saying SlipSpeed shoe technology is a great innovation and they are confident they remain focused on pushing growth of big product items.
