UBER – CDS 89bps, Base Case iCDS 38bps, Negative Case iCDS 43bps, 2029 4.500% Bond YTW of 5.931%, iYTW of 4.724%, Ba3 Rating from Moody’s, IG4 (equivalent to Baa2) Rating from Valens, Low Refinancing Need

March 8, 2024

  • Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.931% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.724%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating risk with a CDS of 89bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 38bps. In addition, Moody’s is overstating UBER’s fundamental credit risk with its Ba3 credit rating, four notches below Valens’ IG4 (Baa2) credit rating.

  • Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, all members of management are material owners of UBER’s equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. In addition, management has low change-in-control compensation relative to their average annual compensation indicating they are not sufficiently incentivized to pursue a takeover or sale of the company.

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