January 24, 2019

Valens Credit Weekly Insights for January 23, 2019


Credit and Market Mispricings

Most Compelling Credit v Equity Market Mispricings
AVP, CVI, CYH, NAV, UIS

Most Compelling Credit Rating Dislocations
AKS, AMAG, AMD, BZH, LEN, MTW, NAV, RIG, X, YRCW

Most Compelling CDS Market Mispricings
AKS, AVP, CHK, CYH, DISH, ESV, JCP, RAD, X, YRCW

Most Compelling Bond Market Mispricings
AKS, AVP, CVI, DISH, DNR, FCX, JCP, LEE, MTOR, R

Highlighted Top Ideas
AMD – Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
BZH – Beazer Homes USA, Inc.
UIS – Unisys Corporation

Other Recent Analyses
Consumer Staples
RAD – Rite Aid Corporation
Energy
DNR – Denbury Resources Inc.

Quantitative Credit Outlier Report Review
JCP tops our quantitative outlier report this week.

Aggregate Credit Market and Credit Fundamental Review

IG markets are currently fairly valued. XO markets have also moved to fairly valued levels, with iCDS converging towards CDS levels. However, the HY market appears mispriced. HY CDS appears to be understating credit risk, with CDS levels not confirmed by iCDS. Overall, cost of borrowing have been rising thanks to improving economic activity and the rising risk free rate

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